UNCOMFORTABLE

Self confidence is a huge asset to have with you, when you’re playing, whereas cockiness is usually the first step on the way to self-destructing. I just added up my rolls on all the sites I play and was dumbfounded to discover that I’m in the red, since my last blog update. I knew I hadn’t been making a killing lately, but still – a loss? – damn. Time for a reality check.

As I write this, I’ve requested tournament statistics from stars and am reviewing stats from other sites as well – I seriously need to find out whether my loss was the result of poor play, variance or bad beats. I’m happy to fess up to any shortcomings, once I get all the facts – yet I hope I won’t have to.

This is a compounded overview of my latest results:

MTTs
Number played: 13
Average buy-in: $ 21.84
Cashed: 4 (31%)
Result: $ -155.33

180-person $4.40 sitngos
Number played: 17
Cashed: 2 (12%)
Result: $ -8.16

Other Sitngos
Number played: 10
Average buy-in: $ 15.20
Cashed: 3 (30%)
Result: $ 13.60

Pretty discouraging results, if I have to say so myself. MTTs will always be fickle in the sense that, even though I’m cashing in a substantial number of them, if that elusive big score keeps escaping me, all of my minimum cashes will do nothing but delay me on the road to becoming a pauper.
The 180-person-sitngos are new to me. The above 17 are literally the first 17 I’ve ever played and I feel I might need to make some adjustments, if I want to do well. I’m beginning to think the buy-in-amount skewed my perception of the opposition and perhaps I need to start giving them more credit for hands, when I’m in marginal situation.
As for the remaining sitngos, the profit gives me an ROI of 9% which is lower than the figure I aspire to, but overall I suppose I can’t complain – especially in the context of my other “body of work”.

As promised, I’ve gone through all of my tournaments and looked at especially my final hands (or the ones in which I lost the bulk of my stack). A large percentage is actually bad-beats and coin-flips/marginal +EV spots, which was a relief. Not all though. I’ll take you through a few of them here and give you my comments along the way.


$27.50 MTT Freezeout - VARIANCE
I’m in the BB with Ad4s (stack 5827) and the villain is UTG+1 (stack 7942). Blinds 100/200. Folds to UTG+1 who limps, folds to HJ who limps as well and fold to me – I check. 3 players:

(Pot 700) FLOP: 4c – Td – 3d
I think I’m best here A LOT and I fire 450 at the flop. UTG+1 calls and HJ folds.

(Pot 1600) TURN: 4d
I don’t see how I’m getting away from this hand now, considering the tournament I’m in, the structure and the time-spent/reward ratio it offers.

I decide that if UTG+1 has anything other than a flush, I’ll probably lose him if I bet and I still feel there’s a good chance I’m ahead here, so I check to him. He bets 2000 fairly quickly. Hmmm… from experience I think he has a flush in this spot very often, which I was kind of hoping he didn’t.

I use my time bank and consider my outs. The time bank running down is actually borderline stressful, to the extent that I’m having trouble counting all of my outs. I figure I’ve got so many though; that a shove is sufficiently +EV, if there’s only a 10% chance he doesn’t have a flush here. I shove for 5177 total and he snap-calls to show Qd2d (limped from UTG+1 – LOL). I don’t manage to hit one of my – what I now know was – 17 outs and I go out in 734th place.

When I move in, he’s obviously got me, so I can’t consider this a bad beat. I still think I have to be happy with the hand though and after having reviewed it now, I’ve decided, I am. The 4d is a great card to bluff at and although my gut told me I was beat, it has been wrong before (!). (*shrug*)


$11 MTT re-buy – POOR PLAY
On the button, I pick up Qh7h (stack 8910). Villain in the hand is the SB (stack 14647). Blinds 250/500/a60. 9-handed, it folds to me on the button, I raise to 1550, the SB calls and the BB folds.

(Pot 4140) FLOP: Jc – 2c – 4c
Villain checks to me and mysteriously I decide to bet 3000 (more than my standard, 2750 – again inexplicably) – meaning I’ve now committed 51% of my stack with Qh7h. Villain calls.

(Pot 10140) TURN: Qc
Villain checks again. What do I do? Wait for it… I move all-in. For fucks sake, who was I trying to outsmart here – myself? Must have been (!) – seeing as I’m the ONLY one who’s paranoid enough to buy the elaborate hoax I was trying to sell here! Villain snaps with AcQh and I’m out in 643rd place (1904 to start).

No further comments necessary. Completely avoidable.


$5.50 MTT re-buy – GOOD PLAY
Started out 645 for this tourney and at the beginning of this hand, we’re well into the money with approximately 36 left. I’m in the BB with Ah5h (stack 48731) and villain is the HJ (stack 93021) with blinds at 600/1200/a125. There’s a bit of history with villain (aggressive and semi-loose) as I’ve 3-bet him twice – one of which he folded pre-flop and the other where he folded to my c-bet on the flop. Also, the hand that preceded this saw me raising 77 from UTG and going up against the BB (BIG stack), which ended with me picking off a bluff on a 2d-Kd-2h-Ks-6d board.

It folds to the HJ who raises to 3600, folds to me – I call.

(Pot 8925) FLOP: 7h – 5d – 9s
I decide to lead at this flop for some of the obvious reasons. Seems like a flop a player in the blinds would’ve hit, villain has been pretty loose and in case I was behind to AK-AT, I now have the best hand. I do however also see villain as a tricky player and don’t expect him to give up on the flop. I lead for 5500.

Villain ponders this for a little bit and minimum-raises me. I actually like my hand a lot now. Apart from a flopped straight, I don’t see what hands minimum-raise here. Some players might do this with a set, but most often they raise more to protect against draws. On the other hand, if I move all-in now, I’m turning my hand into a bluff, as I’m basically trying to sell the story of ME flopping a straight. I just call.

(Pot 30925) TURN: 7c
This is a good card for me. I still like my hand, but again it doesn’t make sense for me to move in, when the board pairs like that. So, I check. Almost immediately, villain bets 7200. ??? I think this is him playing the player, with complete disregard for his own hand. It’s real situational poker. Basically a game of chicken and this is no time to flinch. NOW, was the time to sell my story. I moved all-in for 34006 total. He tanked (could’ve been fake-tanked) and finally mucked his hand. Table dynamics completely changed after that hand.

Adrenalin-surge for sure during this hand – In a live setting, I would’ve been giving off a million physical tells. Thank god for the comfort of online!


Starting bankroll: USD 6,025.95
Session result: USD -149.89
New bankroll: USD 5,876.06
Days left until Aussie Millions 2010: 265

Thanks for reading.