15K GUARANTEED WIN, ANALYSIS PART2

Buy-in was $30+3, 666 entrants; the whole thing took 7.5 hours and 1st place was $3,746.
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Hand #54 – Stack 3740, blinds 50/100
UTG I hold AsJd – and fold it. Something new-ish I’ve been doing more of lately. Since I’m UTG this should be at the very bottom of my opening range and maybe even not in my range at all. I elected to fold here. However, also part of my decision were the stack sizes of the HJ, CO and SB – all perfect re-stealing sizes. Just seemed like the best and lowest-risk play at the time.


Hand #70 – Stack 3365, blinds 75/150
I’ve folded for almost two orbits and now I’m UTG+1 with AdKc. UTG is sitting on a fairly big stack (8368) and has been pretty active. He opens to 375 which has been his standard. Because of his level of activity, I think I have to 3-bet here. If some uber-tight nit (guess that’s redundant) had opened, I think I might have just called – although just the thought of only flatting with AK is a little sickening. Anyway, I needn’t have worried. I make it 1050, it folds around and he insta-folds.


Hand #80 – Stack 3740, blinds 75/150
I hold 6c6d UTG – and fold it. Basically, the same argument as #54, plus now blinds have gone up and I feel like 25BBs is simply not enough to warrant raising 66 in that spot.


Hand #85 – Stack 3590, blinds 100/200
In MP1, I pick up AhQc and open-raise to 500. It folds to the button who calls all-in for only 125 chips. Folds to the BB (stack 5720) who also calls. 3 players:

(Pot 1225) FLOP: 2d 4s 5d
The BB checks and I bet 800 for value against both players’ ranges. If the BB raises, I’m folding and if he calls I’ll re-evaluate on the turn. He folds however and the button reveals AsTh. A ten on the turn gives him the main pot, but the side pot is bigger, so I’m quite happy.


Hand #86 – Stack 4640, blinds 100/200
The very next hand I raise AsJs from UTG+1 and take down the blinds. The difference between folding AJo UTG and raising AJs UTG+1 might be minimal, but I feel it’s enough to warrant two different plays.


Hand #91 – Stack 4640, blinds 100/200
I THINK I played this correctly. Really not sure though. I’ve got black nines on the CO. UTG (stack 6940) opens to 600 and it folds to me. I fold. I thought about it for a bit, but this guy had not been out of line and if he’s an average tight player, the part of his range that I ‘beat’ is probably limited to AK (MAYBE AQs, but not even sure that’s in there with this guy). I guess I just figured, I could find a better spot later in the tournament.


Hand #97 – Stack 4340, blinds 100/200
The better spot presented itself only six hands later. On the button I pick up QsQh and open-raise to 500. The SB calls (stack 2760) and the BB folds.

(Pot 1200) FLOP: 2s Jc 3s
He leads 800 into the pot and I’m considering my options. With this flop, I definitely want to play for stacks with this guy. He has 1460 left, but I’m afraid he might fold if I move in (he obviously don’t understand stack sizes, considering his preflop call). I therefore elect to call and get it in on the turn.

(Pot 2800) TURN: 2h
He shoves the rest in and I snap him off. He shows Ks9s, so probably wasn’t folding that flop – EVER! Need to fade a king and a spade.

(Pot 5720) RIVER: Jd – BOOYAH!


Hand #104 – Stack 6950, blinds 125/250/a25
I’m on the CO and hold QsJc. I make it 625 and pick up blinds/antes.


Hand #117 – Stack 6850, blinds 125/250/a25
I’ve been folding the last 12 hands, which included semi-good starting hands like Ah9h and other Ax hands in middle position that I had to let go due to action in front of me. As a result – I think – I make a speculative call from the BB in this hand. I hold 8c9h. It folds to the SB who 3x raises to 750. He has a stack of 7255 and I actually think a reraise is the best play, IF I should in fact choose to get involved. I could make it approx 2000 and still be able to get away from it, should he shove. Instead I just call.

(Pot 1700) FLOP: Ks Jc 2s
He bets 1000 and I consider floating, but think better of it and just fold. Gave away 500 chips unnecessarily.


Hand #119 – Stack 5925, blinds 125/250/a25
On the button I pick up Kc9h and when it folds to me, I raise to 625. The SB is a big stack with approx. 19K in chips, but the BB only has 1762 and I’m essentially playing for his stack, letting him know that he has no fold equity with me, if he shoves. Surprisingly, he calls.

(Pot 1575) FLOP: 3s 8s 3c
He insta-shoves 1112 and I snap him off right away. K-high might still be good on this flop (I think) and I feel there’s value in showing the table that I’m not going anywhere, when I feel the stack sizes are committing. Unfortunately, he 3-outed me when his K8 (!) hit the flop and I don’t re-suck on him. Nh sir.

Hand #124 – Stack 4063, blinds 150/300/a25
UTG+1 I pick up two red queens and when UTG raises to 800, I fake-deliberate for about 8 seconds, before I shove. Unfortunately he folds, but I pick up much needed blinds/antes + his bet.


Hand #126 – Stack 5488, blinds 150/300/a25
In the BB, I hold 6s6c and am praying that I get to shove over a button-raise. Instead the big-stack at the table (stack 20908) raises to 733 from UTG. Hmmm… Not sure what to make of it. It folds to the CO (stack 9397) who makes the call. When it gets to me, I have no idea what to do. I end up chickening out and just calling. Maybe shoving sixes over an UTG raise would have been spewy anyway. The flop comes down Q-high with 3 overcards to my sixes and I fold (interestingly, it’s the CO who ends up c-betting, as UTG just checked).


Hand #129 – Stack 4530, blinds 150/300/a25
I hold AdKh in the CO seat. UTG (stack 24684) just limps and when it folds to me I decide raising all-in does nothing to accomplish my goal of getting paid when I have a big hand. If I shove 15BBs, I doubt he’ll call – so I elect to use the stop’n’go instead. I make it 1200, it folds back to him and he calls.

(Pot 3075) FLOP: 9c 7d 4h
He checks to me and I move all-in (slightly more than pot-bet). He folds right away. Quite happy with that play and would do the exact same thing again in a similar situation.


Hand #133 – Stack 6305, blinds 150/300/a25
I open-raise QhQc from UTG+1 and pick up the blinds/antes.


Hand #135 – Stack 6930, blinds 150/300/a25
My first light (very light!) 3-bet of the tournament. In the BB, I hold Qh5d. It folds to the CO, who has been fairly (not overly) active. I have however noticed him and he seems to be a good thinking player. He has 8433 in chips and raises to 888. When it folds to me, I consider briefly and then make it 2550. I obviously am not putting him on a premium hand, but I elect to make the raise that amount, because it appears committing. He can’t figure to have any fold equity, if he comes over the top and that’s exactly what I want him to think. It goes without saying, I’m folding if he does shove – but he doesn’t know that.

To re-confirm my suspicion, he types into the chat box: “Not the most ideal stack size to be three betting OOP is it?” I’m tempted to answer him, but don’t say anything. Finally he folds and I take it down. A risky play for sure, but waiting around for AA doesn’t cut it very often!


Will leave you on this note for now. Watch this space for Part3 – due up in 24 hours.