15K GUARANTEED WIN, ANALYSIS PART4

Buy-in was $30+3, 666 entrants; the whole thing took 7.5 hours and 1st place was $3,746.
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Hand #226 – Stack 35501, blinds 600/1200/a125
There hasn’t been much limping going on, so when I see 4d5d in the BB, I don’t expect to be able to see a flop with it. I am proven wrong yet again, as UTG+1 open-limps with a 70566 stack behind. I’ve mentioned this guy before. He had been quite active and definitely seemed like a tricky player. He had also just doubled up, when he called a huge shove (for his tournament life) with 44 and beat AQs. Everyone else folds to me and I check.

(Pot 4000) FLOP: 4h 6d 7s
This flop is too good for me, so because of my read on the guy I decide not to lead at it (fear of check-raise and then what do I do with bottom pair?). Instead I check, planning to call a bet. He checks as well.

(Pot 4000) TURN: 4s
I’ve made trips, but that’s actually irrelevant here. Against most players (not this one, but he doesn’t know that), I’d probably lead here and try to pick it up, whatever my holding. I bet 2000 and he smooth calls.

(Pot 8000) RIVER: 2c
That card misses all draws and because I see him as aggressive I consider checking to let him bluff at it. It’s a play I use rarely and with very mixed success. In the end, I feel like there are still lots of likely holdings which will pay me off, so I bet 4000 for value. He folds.


Hand #230
I raise AcTs from the HJ (8-handed) and take the blinds/antes.


Hand# 236 – Stack 39451, blinds 600/1200/a125
I don’t actually play this hand, but thought the situation was interesting nonetheless. I’m on the button with AhTh, when it folds to MP2 (9-handed again) who shoves for 11647. Normally I’d be the first one to advocate a call here, but all of the sudden It dawned on me that the guy shoving was probably the tightest one at the table. It just felt like he had been biding his time and finally had the big hand, he’d been waiting for. I decided to lay it down, only to see the aggro guy from the last hand snap-call him with As5c! LOL. Turns out I was right this time, as MP2 had AcQc – but perhaps I still need to call against his likely 9.5BB shoving range.


Hand #245 – Stack 36526, blinds 600/1200/a125
I hadn’t played a hand for almost two full orbits, so when I pick up Kc6c on the button, I felt like my raise might get some respect. The only problem is that online players are notoriously suspicious of button-raises. I think everyone instantly puts your range on any-two-cards. LOL. It folds to me, I open for 2800 and both blinds calls. Incidentally, the SB is the aggro player from before. His stack has grown to 81150, whereas the BB is sitting on 37500 at the start of the hand.

(Pot 9400) FLOP: Js 8c 6h
SB checks, BB checks and even though I caught a small piece, I check as well.

(Pot 9400) TURN: Kd
GIN! SB checks and the BB now leads 4800 into the pot. I think he might be doing this with air, but the board is so coordinated that I feel I’ve gotta raise my two pair. I eventually make it 13500, which I think is just about right. It leaves me with 20K to value-shove on non-threatening rivers, commits me to the pot (in his eyes) and still makes him pay for any draws. Unfortunately, my cunning math-skills are wasted as he folds.


Hand #250 – Stack 47276, blinds 800/1600/a150
UTG I hold AcQd. I might seriously consider folding, but the blinds have just gone up and I feel like I’ve gotta play this hand. I make it 3600. “Mr. Aggro” is next to act and he 3-bets me with very little deliberation to 8000. Before I can consider what my move is, it has folded to the BB who re-raises all in for a total of 17208. I now confidently fold and see Mr. Aggro out-race the BB with AQ (!) vs JJ. Still the correct play by me I feel.


Hand #253 – Stack 42426, blinds 800/1600/a150
I open-raise Ac3h in the CO (7-handed) and take down blinds/antes.


Hand #264 – Stack 41826, blinds 800/1600/a150
I haven’t found many hands to open, but then pick up AcQc in UTG+1 (8-handed). Before I get to act however, UTG has moved in for a total of 24396. Can’t call that obviously, but it’s amazing how tempted one is, when it’s been a while since you’ve seen a decent starting hand.


Hand #266 – Stack 41526, blinds 800/1600/a150
In the BB, I hold 9s2h. It folds to the SB (stack 26246) who limps. This was an odd move for him, as he had been raising every other time he opened a hand. With that in mind, I raise to 4800 and he snap-folds. Well played me.


Hand #269 – Stack 43076, blinds 800/1600/a150
Still 8-handed and when it folds to me in the CO, I decide to raise my 3c3s to 3800. I wasn’t loving it, because I felt like my stack was exploitable, but fold a pair in that spot? Not in my playbook. The button calls, before Mr. Aggro (now two to my left) makes it 12800. I was really starting to hate that guy. We both fold.


Hand #278 – Stack 35176, blinds 1K/2K/a200
This hand comes with a little bit of history. A few hands prior to this, I had folded Ac9d in the CO after MP1 had shoved his short-stack of only 8 BBs. I was torn by this decision, feeling like it was a close call (blinds were still 800/1600 at the time) – no pun intended – but eventually laid it down. Anyway, feeling like I may have just missed out on some value, coupled with the fact that my stack-blind-ratio had just dropped, I decided to play my Ts7s from the HJ. It folded to me and I raised to 4800. The BB called me and we took this flop:

(Pot 12400) FLOP: Kd 4h 9c
The BB checks and I fire 8000 at the pot, which in retrospect is way too much. A bet of 7000 or maybe even 6500 accomplishes the same objective. He min-raises me and I have absolutely nothing to battle him with. I fold and am now officially short. Crap.


Hand #283 – Stack 21376, blinds 1K/2K/a200
I hit the jackpot when – in the BB, as if it weren’t good enough already – I pick up AcAd. It only gets better by the fact that Mr. Aggro 3x raises from UTG+1 (stack 77914) and then MP2 3-bets to 16000 (stack 106424). Well, ok then gentlemen. I ship in my stack and they both call.

The board runs out kinda ugly: 8d Qd 9c – Jd – 8s, but it matters not as I easily beat their AsJs and 77. TRIPLE ME UP BABY!!


Stack back in order – ready to move towards the final table. More to come. Thanks for reading!