15K GUARANTEED WIN, ANALYSIS PART5

Buy-in was $30+3, 666 entrants; the whole thing took 7.5 hours and 1st place was $3,746.

Hand #284 – Stack 66328, blinds 1K/2K/a200
Another tight play from yours truly. The very next hand after tripling up with aces and I pick up 9c9d in the SB. For some reason I’m always a little apprehensive about playing two big pots in a row, which has elicited some weaker/tighter plays in the past, compared to my ‘standard’. Anyway, in this case Mr. Aggro from before minraises UTG with a stack of 56538 and it folds to me. In retrospect, perhaps flatcalling isn’t such a bad idea at this stage of the tournament, but against this guy I just didn’t feel comfortable doing it. I folded. *shrug*


Hand #286 – Stack 64928, blinds 1K/2K/a200
Will you believe it – I pick up ‘dem rockets’ one more time. I’m in the CO seat this time. UTG (stack 80488) bumps it up to 5100 and before it gets to me, MP2 (stack 42838) has re-raised him to 14000 (yes, seriously – I am that lucky!). It folds to me and I decide to shove. Even though I’m practically telling the entire table what I hold, I don’t see any other option. If I were to make it e.g. 32000, that just looks even stronger, so I think my play is fine. UTG folds, but MP2 calls for his tournament life. He shows KK and I fade the two-outer!


Hand #290 – Stack 116466, blinds 1K/2K/a200
I now have the largest stack at the table and as a result, I’m looking to put it to good use. This spot seems like an opportune moment. We’re playing 8-handed and it folds to the CO (stack 71588) who opens to 5100. I’m in the BB and hold KdJd. I decide to go with the old maxim of, “late position raiser – he probably doesn’t have it” and I therefore make it 14800. I think the amount is big enough to put him to a decision and still leave me room to fold comfortably, if he shoves. He lays it down however pretty quickly.


Hand #293 – Stack 122566, blinds 1K/2K/a200
We’re now only 7-handed and it folds to me on the CO, where I hold Ah7c. I raise to 4800 and take down blinds/antes.


Hand #294 – Stack 126766, blinds 1K/2K/a200
Only play 7-handed for ONE hand, as we’re back to having nine players at the table. It folds to me in MP2 and I raise again to 4800 with TcTd. The seat immediately to my left now shoves all-in for a total of 22189. It folds back to me and I call.

FLOP: 3d Qd 5d
TURN: 3c
RIVER: 8h

I beat 66 with no complications.


Hand #298 – Stack 152655, blinds 1250/2500/a250
I’m in the SB and hold AdTc. We’re back to 7-handed as the tables are constantly being balanced. One of the ‘new’ players at the table, opens for a raise when it folds to him on the CO. He makes it 7500 with a starting stack of 65485. With my big-stack-status I decide this is another case of him being full of it and when it gets to me, I therefore 3-bet to 20700. When it gets back to him, he pretty much insta-shoves and I’m not loving the spot I’ve put myself in. I decide however that I can’t fold this now (didn’t do the math at the time, but just did now and I’ve almost got 2-1, so it wasn’t all bad) primarily because of the table-dynamic and the fact that I want my 3-bets to garner respect with the other players. I CALL and he shows me ThTd. Aww crap.

FLOP: Ah 9c Jc – this we like…
TURN: 2c – we still like…
RIVER: As – we absolutely like…

Won’t comment further. I know I got lucky there, but the 3-bet preflop is still good, I think.


Hand #304 – Stack 218140, blinds 1250/2500/a250
I guess I was a little drunk with power or something with this hand, feeling like I could push anyone around. Anyway, in the SB I decide to raise Tc5s to 7500, when it folds to me. The BB (stack 57104) calls.

(Pot 16750) FLOP: 2h Qc 6h
I auto-c-bet 11111. He insta-shoves on me. I fold. Oh well.


Hand #306 – Stack 199029, blinds 1250/2500/a250
A player who I’ve deemed is pretty solid, open-shoves 41K (16BBs) from MP2 and I fold 55 on the CO. I really didn’t know at the time. Because it’s an overbet-shove, I feel my pair probably has pretty good equity against his range and I have the stack to ‘take a shot’ at busting him, but I couldn’t pull the trigger. Maybe completely standard fold to some – just know I wasn’t sure at the time.


Hand #310 – Stack 198029, blinds 1250/2500/a250
I splash a little bit, when I call Mr. Aggro’s minraise from the BB with 7h5s. The flop comes down KJ4 all-hearts and when I check he moves all-in for 53K. Meh… I really wanna call and pick off 33 or some other random hand like that, but of course let it go.


Hand #314 – Stack 190779, blinds 1250/2500/a250
Mr. Aggro is starting to annoy me, which is the main reason for me playing the following hand the way I did. From the HJ, I raise AcQs to 6250 and Mr. Aggro (stack 67158) smooth calls on the button.

(Pot 18000) FLOP: 2c 9h Th
I elect to check, but I won’t give you a speech about some grand plan I might have had. I wasn’t really sure what to do because of my opposition. He bets 12500 pretty quickly and instinctively (can’t really explain it any other way) I re-raise allin. Now, this line doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I just figured he was full of it and the kind of player to bet any two cards, when checked to him. Anyway, he calls right away with KhTd (don’t agree with his preflop call, but whatever) and I don’t suck out.

I was steaming. Really fucking annoyed with myself and had to use a bit of time to compose myself after it. Even though I still had plenty of chips, I was thinking stuff like, “you blew it – that was your shot. Game over” etc etc. Ridiculous. Anyway, not much else to do but move on.


Hand #315 – Stack 123631, blinds 1250/2500/a250
Very next hand I pick up QdQc and when UTG opens to 7500 (stack 111185) I’m already preparing myself for the risk of going broke over the course of two hands. In the next seat, I make it 2100, but thankfully UTG insta-folds, when it gets back to him. Phew… actually just what I needed, to calm down after the AQ hand.


Hand #317 – Stack 136121, blinds 1250/2500/a250
Whether it was because of a quick succession of bust-outs or perhaps just a good tournament structure, I don’t know – but the stack to blinds ratio was quite high at this point. Playing 7-handed, the shortest stack at the table was sitting on 31 BBs. Perhaps as a result, this limp-hand ensued. MP, HJ, CO and SB all limp. In the BB I don’t figure I’ll be able to get rid of all of my opponents with a raise, so I elect to check my AcTd.

(Pot 14250) FLOP: 3c Ts 2d
So, I flop top pair but I’m actually quite suspicious of the limping-ranges of the other players, so I decide to try and keep the pot small and check. Everyone else checks to the HJ (stack 80251) who bets 8750. Only I call.

(Pot 31750) TURN: 8d
Seems like a safe card, but I’m still happy to keep the pot small and actually expect a check from him a lot of the time as well (as he would also be looking to exercise some pot-size control). So I check, but he bets again – this time 16500. I may be over-analyzing here, but whereas his flop-bet seemed fairly confident, this half-pot bet didn’t look quite as strong. To be honest, I probably should’ve given the hand some more thought, but I didn’t at the time. The bet made me think he didn’t have it, so I shoved on him. I could try to make a case for a few hands that I beat, which will still call me when I shove, but in reality I don’t think it’s the best play. If I think I have the best hand, a smaller raise is definitely best. It gives him a chance to do something spewy and then I can snap him off. Oh well, he thought for a long long time, but eventually gave it up.


Hand #320 – Stack 170771, blinds 1500/3000/a300
In the CO I hold AdKs, 7-handed. Two to my right (stack 99040) opens to 7400 and I 3-bet him standard to 21200. He folds immediately when it gets back to him. I was actually kind of hoping he might consider my raise to be of the ‘light variety’, because I myself felt like I’d been pretty active, but no such luck.


Hand #326 – Stack 178741, blinds 1500/3000/a300
We haven’t seen a flop since my AT hand. Someone raises, everyone folds. I’ve got Kc7d on the button 7-handed and do the same. No resistance this time.


Hand #334 – Stack 178171, blinds 1500/3000/a300
Mr. Aggro and I finally have a show-down. We’re down to the final two tables and are back to 9-handed. I have the chip-lead at my table. It folds to me on the button and I raise 3h3s to 7200, which has been my standard. In the BB Mr. Aggro now shoves for a total of 52981. I’m only getting 7-5 odds of making this call, but against this guy I felt like his range was CONSIDERALY wider than the rest of the table. So, whereas I might lay it down some of the time, I decided to call here. He showed 9dTh.

FLOP: 4c Kc Jc
TURN: Ah
RIVER: Js

BUSTO! I think the call is completely situational and opponent-specific, so it’s hard to debate for/against. If he shows me his hand, obviously I call and I felt like he probably only had two overs, considering his past actions. It felt good to get rid of him and I now had a monster-stack.


Hand #336 – Stack 236252, blinds 1500/3000/a300
Already, back to 7-handed as the people have been busting on both tables. At this point, I of course also have the other table up on my screen and am taking a few notes about some of the players. This hand isn’t noteworthy though. Folds to me on the HJ, I raise Ah8c and everyone folds.


Hand #339 – Stack 238952, blinds 1500/3000/a300
6-handed now. It folds to me in the SB and I raise Jd5c, because I’ve noticed the BB to be tight. He folds.


Hand #340 – Stack 243452, blinds 1500/3000/a300
I hold Ah3h on the button and apparently have been a little too active. I open-raise to 7200 again and the SB (stack 188786) 3-bets me to 26455. Big bet. Wow. I let it go. Nh sir.


Hand #343 – Stack 235152, blinds 2K/4K/a400
Still 6-handed, I pick up Ac9s and open from UTG to 8800. Blinds have just gone up and some are now even shorter than they were during the last level. One such player shoves for 36000 from the SB. Of course I call, but find myself up against two red queens.

FLOP: Ts Qs Jh – king one time, dealer…?
TURN: 7d – still waiting on that king, dealer…?
RIVER: 7s

The dealer must hate me (!) and he doubles up deservedly so.


Hand #345 – Stack 193022, blinds 2K/4K/a400
The button opens to 12K (stack 121435) and I decide to fold 33 from the SB. No explanation available. He hadn’t been extremely tight, but not overly active either. He might have had it, might not have. It just didn’t ‘feel’ right, so I folded. Who knows.


Hand #347 – Stack 190222, blinds 2K/4K/a400
Folds to me in the CO and I raise KdQd to 8800. I pick up blinds/antes.


Hand #351 – Stack 201422, blinds 2K/4K/a400
Folds to me in the SB and I raise AdJc to 10K (I make my raises slightly larger in blind-vs-blind confrontations, compared to other opens). BB folds.


Hand #352 – Stack 207422, blinds 2K/4K/a400
On the button, I open-raise 3d3h to 8800 and the SB (stack 201757) calls. We take a flop:

(Pot 24000) FLOP: Ks 3c Th
Holy crap… I’m re-living a wet dream of mine. What a time to flop a set and what a board. He checks to me and I lead 14500 at the pot (same as I would with a range of other hands). Come on! Have KT one time!! He folds. *sigh*…


Hand #353 – Stack 222222, blinds 2K/4K/a400
UTG (stack 51460) opens to 11900 and on the CO I hold AsJc. What to do? He’s raising, not shoving with a 13BB stack which is usually strength, but folding AJ 6-handed seems awfully nitty. Flat-calling seem awfully weak. I decide to go with it and make it 28000. Back to him and he insta-shoves. Fuck. Please not AA. He shows AdKh.

FLOP: Kc Ks 6c
-and no runner-runner for me. Nh sir.


Hand #354 – Stack 170762, blinds 2K/4K/a400
Even though I felt like I was completely at peace with having run AJ into AK, I guess I couldn’t have been as this hand will demonstrate. On the HJ I open KdJd to 8800. The CO (stack 192157) calls and we see a flop.

(Pot 26000) FLOP: Qh 2s 6d
A fairly innocuous looking flop and one I should be c-betting. Instead I check, as does he.

(Pot 26000) TURN: 9h
NOW I lead at the pot with a 14K bet. He considers briefly, before min-raising to 28K. Oh crap, I hate that play (hate being faced with it, that is – the play actually works quite often in my experience). It’s usually always strength as only very few players have the creativity to bluff with a min-raise. Still, I call – not wanting to be pushed off a hand.

(Pot 82000) RIVER: 3d
This is where my meltdown culminates. I now LEAD at the pot with a bet of 36000! Obviously, when I call the turn, I’m not looking to hit my gutshot (although that would’ve been nice) – no, I’m looking to bluff the river, but it’s just such a horrible play. Hands that MIGHT make sense (from his perspective) would be something like pocket 3s, but even that doesn’t add up all too well. I’m not even going to spend more time on the hand – it was awful from start to finish and he ends up shoving on me anyway, so it doesn’t really matter. I blow almost 40% of my stack on that hand. Stupid, stupid, stupid and I knew it.


Hand #362 – Stack 97162, blinds 2K/4K/a400
In the BB I wake up with KsKh, but the last 8 hands haven’t seen any action (I even got a walk in my BB), so I’m not overly excited. Until the HJ (stack 99392) opens to 9999, that is! It folds to me and I make it 25500 (which in hindsight is probably a little smaller than some of my other 3-bets and therefore might be a leak I need to address). He doesn’t seem to notice though, as he shoves. SNAP! – and I now need to hold against Ac7d!

FLOP: Jd Kc 9h
TURN: 7s
RIVER: 8h

Oh yeah baby, back to the top end of the leader board with that pot!


Hand #365 – Stack 195124, blinds 2500/5000/a500
The guy who had A7 in the last hand is now in the SB and after posting, only has 3700 left. Therefore, I elect to raise Ac2c form the CO to 12000, looking to get a call from him. It all works out and I’m up against Qs5h.

FLOP: 3c Td Qd… hmmm.
TURN: Ks… Jack/Ace?
RIVER: 8d.

I double him up.


Hand #369 – Stack 181934, blinds 2500/5000/a500
I’m not impressed with the way I played this hand, but in hindsight it might not be that bad. I hold JsTs in the SB and playing 5-handed, I call the UTG (stack 109160) raise, when he makes it 12250.

(Pot 32000) FLOP: Kh As Td
I check and he bets 16410. I did catch the bottom end of the flop and I think peeling one off (despite being out of position) isn’t too bad. I call.

(Pot 64820) TURN: 5d
I check and he moves in for 80K. Ok, ok… you don’t have to tell me twice. Nh sir. I fold.


INTERIM NOTE: I DON’T MIND ADMITTING, THAT I’M PLAYING A LITTLE SCARED AT THIS POINT. I REALLY WANTED TO MAKE THE FINAL TABLE AND WAS THEREFORE A LITTLE TIMID WITH WHAT HANDS I OPENED AND WHICH ONES I DIDN’T.


Hand #383 – Stack 131274, blinds 2500/5000/a500
As just noted, I’ve tightened up a bit and haven’t played a hand for almost 3 full orbits. To be fair, I haven’t had much to open with, but the table has opened up quite a bit, with a lot of 3-betting going on and I can’t figure them to have had AA/KK all the time, so bottom line: I’m scared and they’re not! I decide enough is enough, when I pick up the monster-hand that is: QdTc in the BB. The CO opens to 12455 and I raise him to 30500. Almost immediately he comes over the top for all of his chips: 316K. LOL. Way to pick my spots. I fold and feel like I just got soul-read.


Hand #385 – Stack 96674, blinds 3K/6K/a600
On the button I this time have a legitimate hand and I open AsQS to 15000. It folds to the BB (same guy who shoved on me last hand) and he shoves again. I call immediately and find myself in a race against 6h6d.
FLOP: 8h Ad Jc… sweet, sweet Ace! How glad am I to see you.
TURN: 8d… come on now, no six!
RIVER: Qc

CHA-CHING!! I let out a huge sigh of relief as I was – literally – holding my breath when the community cards were coming down.

Two hands later, a guy busts in 10th place and we’re down to the final table! I don’t have much going in, except for a medium stack and a few dreams. LOL. Sorry guys – a little corny. Couldn’t help myself. See you back here for the Final Table!